Q3 2026: Monterey Peninsula Market Snapshot

Single Family Homes • Q3: July – September 2026 • vs. July – September 2025

What's happening in our market, and why it matters

Summer is winding down, and the market has shifted into a slower, more deliberate gear. The headline this quarter: homes are taking longer to sell nearly everywhere on the Peninsula. Buyers have more time to think, and sellers have less room for pricing mistakes.

Before the numbers, a quick look discussion about mortgage rates. We started the quarter at 6.43% and it steadily rose to 7% by end of September. This week, the 30-year fixed average rate increased to 7.28% - the highest it's been in three years. (Anybody else remember when rates were just under 6% in February?) Woof. That said, you can't time the rates. We Realtors have a perfectly cheesy lil' motto for that: "Marry the house, date the rate!". Maybe February wasn't your time to buy, and now it is. This is when you have strategic conversations with your loan officer and me about your options - because smart options exist in this market. And if you're half of our buyers here on the Monterey Peninsula, you are all-cash and unaffected by this. Lucky!

Here's how each community is looking this quarter:

My sneakers-on-the-ground take:

The biggest story is time. Days on market went up in every community, and in some places dramatically. Pacific Grove more than doubled to 65 days (I felt it!), and Carmel Valley averaged 130. Buyers are taking their time, comparing options, and in most cases, negotiating.

Median price: Sale prices have increased modestly by 2-4% in several communities. Carmel's median skyrocketed by 24%, but in a small market with 20% fewer home sales, a handful of high-end closings can move that median sales price number and make it look more dramatic than it is. Monterey went the other direction, with the most sales on the Peninsula (up 42%) and a lower median price, which suggests more activity at the more accessible end of the market. Not on this chat, but price per square foot, which still rose 5% in Monterey, often tells a steadier story.

Seaside and Marina continue to be the most approachable markets on the map, with prices holding steady to slightly up and homes moving at a healthy pace.

At the end of the day (er, quarter), the Peninsula is still a place people want to be. The shift is in the pace: buyers have more leverage than they've had in years, and sellers who price thoughtfully from day one are still being rewarded.

Thanks for reading! If I can help you understand the nuances of our micro-markets to help strategically buy or sell your home, please reach out. I'd be honored to help.

With gratitude,

Ashley